Thailand’s tourism sector is facing a significant downturn, with Chinese visitor numbers projected to fall by nearly 30 percent in 2025. The Bank of Thailand recently revised its forecast for Chinese tourists, lowering the expected arrivals from 7 million to 5 million. This adjustment has contributed to a broader reduction in the total number of foreign visitors anticipated, from 39.5 million to 37.5 million for the year.
Chinese tourist arrivals have already dropped substantially in 2024, reaching 6.7 million compared to a pre-pandemic high of 11 million in 2019. The central bank attributes this decline to ongoing concerns over the impact of US tariff policies, which are expected to affect international travel patterns and the global economic environment.
In more severe tariff scenarios, foreign arrivals could fall further, with estimates as low as 37 million for the year. The minutes from recent Bank of Thailand meetings highlight growing apprehension about the tourism sector’s weakening performance, a crucial component of the nation’s economy. Additional challenges include changing travel preferences among Chinese tourists and increased promotion of domestic tourism by China’s government. The wider global economic slowdown and prolonged trade tensions are also dampening discretionary spending on overseas trips.
Beyond visitor numbers, there are concerns that average tourist spending may not return to the levels seen before the pandemic, when nearly 40 million foreign arrivals made substantial economic contributions. Independent research centers have issued similarly cautious forecasts. Kiatnakin Phatra Research Centre (KKP Research) expects a slight rise in total foreign visitors to 36.2 million but anticipates fewer Chinese tourists, citing competition from other Asian destinations like Japan. Meanwhile, Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) projects a year-on-year decline to 34.5 million arrivals, with foreign tourist revenue dropping by 3 percent to 1.62 trillion baht.
From January 1 to May 11, Thailand welcomed 12.9 million foreign tourists, a marginal decrease of 1 percent compared to the same period last year. Looking ahead, economic growth in Thailand may increasingly depend on a significant expansion in foreign tourism—potentially reaching 70 million arrivals by 2030—to offset weakening manufacturing output, falling exports, and the challenges faced by the tourism industry.
Among those present at the Bank of Thailand’s meetings were senior director of the macroeconomic department Pranee Sutthasri and representatives from KKP Research and K-Research, all highlighting the vital role tourism continues to play in Thailand’s economic outlook.
